This is one of my favorite times of year! Everyone gets in a good mood, there is a lot of energy in the air as people get excited about the holidays and it provides investors a great opportunity to turn holiday shopping into profitable investment opportunities.
You probably read that last line and thought what the heck is he talking about? Well I find the holiday shopping season to be the best time to find retail stocks that I want to buy for the upcoming year. I go to the mall to do my shopping and I look at all the different stores to see who is busy and who isn’t. I also look to see which stores are giving the highest discounts and which are not.
Again, you are probably asking, OK, what does this tell you about which retailers to invest in for the upcoming year?
Look at it this way, when you look inside a store and see it full of happy customers, lining up to pay for items and the sound of the cash register, well that is an inside peek at a company that will probably have great holiday earnings. No matter how many numbers you crunch, seeing people actually lining up to buy things, gives you a true picture of how good or bad that retailer will do for the season. Is this a basic investment theory, yes it is. But, we tend to forget that keeping things simple can be the easiest way to make a profit.
My favorite retail investment was made at this exact time of year. Back in 2006 I was walking around the mall, seeing that most of the stores were doing ok, but nothing that made me go wow, until I walked by the Apple Store.
The store was jammed packed with people looking at the new products that Apple was releasing at that time. Yes, Apple was a favorite among analysts, but the stock had pulled back from 2006 highs in December, setting up for a monster 2007. I could not believe how crowded the store was and how excited people were about these new products. When it was all said and done, Apple blew away their numbers and all possible estimates, which led to the stock running higher throughout 2007.
Here is my advice to you, the investor. When you go shopping pay attention to the stores you go into and the ones you don’t shop in as well. Look to see where the shoppers are and why they are there. We know that Best Buy was going to be busy on Black Friday, but that’s because of their loss leaders for their big sale. I want to see the lines continue after the Black Friday weekend ends (probably not going to be that big at Best Buy). You don’t need an analyst from the Wall Street to tell you that based on their numbers, retailer X is going to do well. You will see with your own eyes, who are doing well and who are not.
Enjoy your holiday season and look to make it a profitable one as well.
I look forward to hearing from those that read my blog. Please email your stories of how you found investments using methods like above. You can email me at mickey@todaytrader.com
We provide a free daily watch list of stocks that we are watching each day. You can see our daily watch list at www.todaytrader.com You do not have sign up, just click on the watch list word on the left side of the page. No registration is required and it’s free. These are stocks we are watching based on how the traded the previous day.
This is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell. These are stocks we are watching for traders. We may or may not trade these picks and do not make any guarantee of success. Commentary of these stocks is for educational purposes only
Mickey Welcher is President of Spectral Asset Management LLC and works with Today Trader. He has extensive trading experience and money management for clients. If you have any questions, please contact him at mickey @todaytrader.com
You probably read that last line and thought what the heck is he talking about? Well I find the holiday shopping season to be the best time to find retail stocks that I want to buy for the upcoming year. I go to the mall to do my shopping and I look at all the different stores to see who is busy and who isn’t. I also look to see which stores are giving the highest discounts and which are not.
Again, you are probably asking, OK, what does this tell you about which retailers to invest in for the upcoming year?
Look at it this way, when you look inside a store and see it full of happy customers, lining up to pay for items and the sound of the cash register, well that is an inside peek at a company that will probably have great holiday earnings. No matter how many numbers you crunch, seeing people actually lining up to buy things, gives you a true picture of how good or bad that retailer will do for the season. Is this a basic investment theory, yes it is. But, we tend to forget that keeping things simple can be the easiest way to make a profit.
My favorite retail investment was made at this exact time of year. Back in 2006 I was walking around the mall, seeing that most of the stores were doing ok, but nothing that made me go wow, until I walked by the Apple Store.
The store was jammed packed with people looking at the new products that Apple was releasing at that time. Yes, Apple was a favorite among analysts, but the stock had pulled back from 2006 highs in December, setting up for a monster 2007. I could not believe how crowded the store was and how excited people were about these new products. When it was all said and done, Apple blew away their numbers and all possible estimates, which led to the stock running higher throughout 2007.
Here is my advice to you, the investor. When you go shopping pay attention to the stores you go into and the ones you don’t shop in as well. Look to see where the shoppers are and why they are there. We know that Best Buy was going to be busy on Black Friday, but that’s because of their loss leaders for their big sale. I want to see the lines continue after the Black Friday weekend ends (probably not going to be that big at Best Buy). You don’t need an analyst from the Wall Street to tell you that based on their numbers, retailer X is going to do well. You will see with your own eyes, who are doing well and who are not.
Enjoy your holiday season and look to make it a profitable one as well.
I look forward to hearing from those that read my blog. Please email your stories of how you found investments using methods like above. You can email me at mickey@todaytrader.com
We provide a free daily watch list of stocks that we are watching each day. You can see our daily watch list at www.todaytrader.com You do not have sign up, just click on the watch list word on the left side of the page. No registration is required and it’s free. These are stocks we are watching based on how the traded the previous day.
This is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell. These are stocks we are watching for traders. We may or may not trade these picks and do not make any guarantee of success. Commentary of these stocks is for educational purposes only
Mickey Welcher is President of Spectral Asset Management LLC and works with Today Trader. He has extensive trading experience and money management for clients. If you have any questions, please contact him at mickey @todaytrader.com
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